The latest inflation reports are boosting the chances of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
This is detrimental to consumers and investors and it’s showing up in the housing market along with the bond market. Last week we saw the average 30-year mortgage rate edge up to 6.82%.footnote 1 This came as new home prices were reported down slightly on a month-over-month basis (seasonally adjusted)footnote 2 because the monthly payment on an average home has doubled $2,000 as of March 1st.footnote3 Why? Because the Fed has increased interest rates 11 times since the start of 2020. But the Fed has projected rate cuts for 2024, haven’t they?? Projected, yes. Guaranteed, no.
Here’s the cause. Inflation has stalled in the 3.5% annualized area, a wide gap from the Fed’s 2.0% target rate. Meanwhile the federal government is driving the federal debt up at a meteoric pace with military spending and hundreds of thousands of new government jobs.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rate is rising, contrary to its past responses to the Federal Reserve talk favoring interest rate cuts. Treasuries are now trading at 4.43% which is a 56-basis point (or 0.56%) increase since the start of February footnote 4. Note the yield had been on a downward trend since it hit a 16-year high in mid-October. But recent inflation data is spooking the bond market into demanding higher yields (with lower prices).
But there hasn’t been an inflation report since March 28, so why would the bond market be spooked in recent days? Last Friday’s employment report is the answer. The mega-increase in new jobs — 303,000 footnote 5 versus consensus expectations of 200,000 — shocked investors and is expected to drive inflation higher. And what is driving the unexpected jobs growth? Government hiring and low-end hospitality hiring. So long as more people are making more money (which is counter to the Fed’s point in raising interest rates), it will drive demand and the prices for virtually everything will rise.
After solving the supply constraints during Covid, we should be benefitting from price deflation at this point in time. Instead, it appears that prices will continue to rise, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates further.
Mariann Montagne, CFA
Sources:
1 Y-charts
3 Zillow